The Looming Existential Threat, Part One
How should we think about artificial intelligence?
Today’s post relates to a subject that has been stuck in my head for some time; I can’t seem to shake it, so forgive me. It’s not an obsession, nor do I believe a misplaced worry, it is my growing awareness of the negative impact artificial intelligence (AI) will likely have on our future. This isn’t a political post; in fact, it has nothing to do with politics. I hope loyal readers of I Was Just Thinking will see it for what it is, a call for all of us to consider what is happening.
AI is a hot topic, you can’t watch CNBC, read the Wall Street Journal, or listen to a public company shareholder call, without the subject of AI being a central theme; the investment community is chasing returns with companies that can leverage AI. Company CEOs understand the massive amount of capital eager to deploy into AI capable companies and they are selling their businesses’ AI chops to draw investor attention. These same companies are also advertising their abilities to the public; as I have referenced before, everyone claims they are using AI to do everything. Artificial intelligence equates to money, big money.
There are countless ways a company can deploy AI to increase revenue and value; generally speaking, though, AI is best monetized by providing access to as many users as possible; including average people using available AI tools; but is that a problem?
There is an ongoing debate about the dangers of AI; as is common, much of the noise, it is just that, noise, much of what is described as the risk of AI is overblown, dramatic, or not widely viewed as likely. The idea of a sentient computer waking up and turning its wrath on human beings sells books and movie tickets but is far-fetched, if even possible. Keep in mind, the field of AI has yet to solve for artificial general intelligence (AGI), a type of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human cognitive capabilities across a wide range of subjects or tasks—not a single isolated task; believing a machine can have consciousness isn’t a logical next step for science, but a million steps.
So, if we aren’t going to wake up one day to find out a machine somewhere is pissed and decided to kill us, what are the legitimate threats that draw attention? It is widely agreed that a machine, in and of itself, isn’t the risk, it is human beings who train the machine to accomplish certain tasks we should be worried about; you can extend that fear beyond the architect to those who control the AI agent and intend to use it for unethical or dangerous purposes. Accepting this primary threat as reality, most of the emphasis and attention from the media is on AI companies and their leadership; and for my money that is a good area to focus on. Capitalism is the only viable economic model; it is also the structure that drives greed and the pursuit of power; never underestimate what people will do to become rich (see Enron).
Along the same lines of a rogue business person training or using existing AI technology for ill intent, you can add the threat of a few world dictators who conspire with their scientists to build an AI agent that exist to optimize an evil task more effectively than humans could master; maybe this is development of some horrible contagious disease or an approach to killing the most people in a targeted US city. Sadly, a lunatic with an advanced AI agent, is a real concern and will forever be there; the world is full of crazy leaders who spend much of their time conspiring to hurt democracies.
The two threats to nefarious utilization of AI outlined above are real and ongoing, and thankfully are getting attention to address today and tomorrow’s risks; what doesn’t get attention and has become insidious, is the widespread deployment of AI technology that is used to alter what we see, hear, or read. Almost anyone who tries can gain access to AI solutions that will alter pictures, videos, or create content that seems real but is all made up; the person doesn’t have to be smart, or technically inclined, all they need is to have some motivation; some reason to create fantasy facts. For some, I guess, it is fun to deceive, others are driven by a strong agenda, and some are just crazy. Regardless, AI generated deception is pervasive and growing; it is measurably changing our lives, and not for the better. It is very difficult to know what is real and what is made up.
Hurricane Helene did unspeakable damage to good people, forever changing their lives; it is a tragedy that should bring people together, and on some level, it has; neighbors and volunteers are rolling up their sleeves and doing what they can. Unfortunately, the conspiracy machine is working just as hard to deceive, as the people on the ground who are getting things done. If you doubt how bad things have become in this country with truth and conspiracy, take a step back and consider how quickly rumors, falsehoods, and outright lies began to consume how people viewed what was happening. It got so bad that North Carolina Republican State Senator Kevin Corbin, who represents much of the impacted district posted on Facebook the following:
“Friends can I ask a small favor? Will you all help STOP this conspiracy theory junk that is floating all over Facebook and the internet about the floods in WNC. Example: FEMA is stealing money from donations, body bags ordered but the government has denied, bodies are not being buried, government is controlling the weather from Antarctica, government is trying to get lithium from WNC, stacks of bodies left at hospitals, and on and on and on. PLEASE help stop this junk. It is just a distraction to people trying to do their job. Folks, this is a catastrophic event of which this country has never known. It is the largest crisis event in the history of N.C. The state is working non-stop. DOT has deployed workers from all over the state. Duke power has 10,000 workers on this. FEMA is here. The National Guard is here in large numbers. My Senate district is 8 counties and it takes 3 hours to drive across it in good weather…. And this disaster is 25 counties in N.C. This is going to take MONTHS if not years to overcome. Government will play a role in this cleanup. We are going to make sure the state chips in some massive money. But Government is not the total solution. YES, there are a lot of neighbors helping neighbors and that’s good and the way it should be. Please don’t let these crazy stories consume you or have you continually contact your elected officials to see if they are true. I just talked to one Senator that has had 15 calls TODAY about why we don’t stop …….. “fill in the blank.” 98% chance it’s not true and if it is a problem, somebody is aware and on it and not waiting for a post to go thru 10,000 people to be addressed. Thanks for listening but I’ve been working on this 12 hours a day since it started and I’m growing a bit weary of intentional distractions from the main job …. which is to help our citizens in need.”
The next day US Senator Tom Tillis, Republican from North Carolina, said, “for anybody who thinks that any level of government, anybody here could have been prepared precisely for what we’re dealing with here, clearly, are clueless. They’re doing a great job.”
Okay, remember this isn’t a political post, really, it’s not; bear with me. Where do you think the misinformation is coming from; yes, you can cite countless examples of politicians who are trying to score points on this and they should be ashamed, but again that’s not the point. AI has enabled average people to distribute garbage; altered images, videos, quotes, are easily distributed. Using AI and the tools available it is not hard to start a fake story and to fan the flames of the story.
It begs the question, where are the initial lies coming from? No doubt there are groups of people in this country who feed conspiracy silliness; it serves whatever purpose they hold and, although horrible, is not likely the driver of the looming threat. That distinction is given to foreign adversaries who have silently and powerfully declared war on the US with misinformation as the tool they use to create social chaos.
It is well understood that foreign adversaries use bot farms to influence online content and the momentum with which the information spreads--a bot is a software application that is programmed to do certain tasks. Bots are automated, they run according to their instructions without a human user needing to manually start them up every time. Bots typically replace a human user's behavior; bots would not be considered AI, but you could use AI to optimize their performance, and that is exactly what is happening.
A conspiracy doesn’t require an automated bot farm to post the inaccurate message to gain momentum (although these bots post misinformation constantly); rather a single message that holds little or no truth can get inflated likes from the bot farm thus growing its distribution and number of views; it can, and does, happen in a matter of seconds. Lies and outlandish claims suddenly look like facts and become quoted by politicians and, at times, the media.
The point is, there are entities throwing gasoline on inflammatory garbage to create more chaos, more division, more distrust, more anger, and more ill-informed citizens; that is their goal, they want the US to implode from within. They can’t beat us any other way, maybe we will defeat ourselves; maybe they are right.
Two years before the election that named him 16th president of the United States of America, Abraham Lincoln delivered his famous “House Divided” speech on the evening of June 16, 1858, at the Illinois Republican State Convention in Springfield, Illinois. During the speech he said, “a house divided against itself cannot stand.” He was worried about the growing threat and division in the US over the issue of slavery and what it could mean to the future of the country; his fear was well founded and had it not been for his leadership, and the bravery of the citizenry, these United States would not have survived.
I consider Lincoln’s words to be powerful and still true today, but if you need a more credentialed source try this. Lincoln was relying on his copy of the King James Bible, where he found this passage in Matthew, 12:25: “And Jesus knew their thoughts, and said unto them, every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand.”
To be continued on Friday.
